Friends of Risk

Blitz 100% Chart

The smallest attacker stack that conquers a territory with 100% certainty under Balanced Blitz, for every defender stack up to 300 — with the exact minimum, average and maximum troops the attack costs you. Attacker stack counts every troop on your territory, the way players call battles: a 4v1 is a 4-stack attacking a single defender. One troop always stays behind, so a stack of 4 rolls 3 troops in the blitz.

Defender stack Attacker stack (100% win) Min attacker loss Avg. attacker loss Max attacker loss Avg. attacker troops left
1 4 0 0.1 2 2.9
2 6 0 0.9 3 4.1
3 7 0 1.5 5 4.5
4 9 0 2.4 6 5.6
5 10 1 3.2 7 5.8
6 11 1 4.0 9 6.0
7 12 1 4.8 10 6.2
8 13 2 5.6 11 6.4
9 15 2 6.5 12 7.5
10 16 3 7.4 13 7.6
11 17 4 8.2 14 7.8
12 18 4 9.0 15 8.0
13 19 5 9.9 16 8.1
14 20 5 10.7 17 8.3
15 21 6 11.6 18 8.4
16 22 6 12.4 20 8.6
17 23 7 13.2 21 8.8
18 24 8 14.0 22 9.0
19 25 8 14.9 23 9.1
20 26 9 15.7 24 9.3
21 27 10 16.5 25 9.5
22 28 10 17.4 26 9.6
23 29 11 18.3 27 9.7
24 30 12 19.1 28 9.9
25 31 12 19.9 29 10.1
26 32 13 20.8 30 10.2
27 33 14 21.6 31 10.4
28 34 14 22.5 32 10.5
29 35 15 23.3 33 10.7
30 36 16 24.1 34 10.9
31 37 16 25.0 35 11.0
32 38 17 25.9 36 11.1
33 39 18 26.7 37 11.3
34 40 18 27.5 38 11.5
35 41 19 28.4 39 11.6
36 42 20 29.2 40 11.8
37 43 20 30.1 41 11.9
38 44 21 31.0 42 12.0
39 45 22 31.8 42 12.2
40 46 22 32.6 43 12.4
41 47 23 33.5 44 12.5
42 48 24 34.3 45 12.7
43 49 25 35.1 46 12.9
44 50 25 36.0 47 13.0
45 51 26 36.9 48 13.1
46 52 27 37.7 49 13.3
47 53 27 38.6 50 13.4
48 54 28 39.4 51 13.6
49 55 29 40.3 52 13.7
50 56 30 41.1 53 13.9
51 57 30 42.0 54 14.0
52 58 31 42.8 55 14.2
53 59 32 43.7 56 14.3
54 60 32 44.5 57 14.5
55 61 33 45.4 58 14.6
56 61 34 46.1 59 13.9
57 62 35 46.9 60 14.1
58 63 35 47.8 61 14.2
59 64 36 48.7 62 14.3
60 65 37 49.5 63 14.5
61 66 37 50.4 64 14.6
62 67 38 51.2 65 14.8
63 68 39 52.1 66 14.9
64 69 40 52.9 66 15.1
65 70 40 53.8 67 15.2
66 71 41 54.7 68 15.3
67 72 42 55.5 69 15.5
68 73 43 56.3 70 15.7
69 74 43 57.2 71 15.8
70 75 44 58.1 72 15.9
71 76 45 58.9 73 16.1
72 77 46 59.7 74 16.3
73 78 46 60.6 75 16.4
74 78 47 61.4 76 15.6
75 79 48 62.2 77 15.8
76 80 49 63.1 78 15.9
77 81 49 63.9 79 16.1
78 82 50 64.8 80 16.2
79 83 51 65.7 81 16.3
80 84 52 66.5 81 16.5
81 85 52 67.4 82 16.6
82 86 53 68.2 83 16.8
83 87 54 69.1 84 16.9
84 88 55 69.9 85 17.1
85 89 55 70.8 86 17.2
86 90 56 71.6 87 17.4
87 91 57 72.5 88 17.5
88 92 58 73.3 89 17.7
89 93 58 74.2 90 17.8
90 93 59 74.9 91 17.1
91 94 60 75.8 92 17.2
92 95 61 76.6 93 17.4
93 96 61 77.5 94 17.5
94 97 62 78.4 95 17.6
95 98 63 79.2 96 17.8
96 99 64 80.1 96 17.9
97 100 64 80.9 97 18.1
98 101 65 81.8 98 18.2
99 102 66 82.6 99 18.4
100 103 67 83.5 100 18.5
101 104 67 84.3 101 18.7
102 105 68 85.2 102 18.8
103 105 69 86.0 103 18.0
104 106 70 86.8 104 18.2
105 107 70 87.7 105 18.3
106 108 71 88.6 106 18.4
107 109 72 89.4 107 18.6
108 110 73 90.3 108 18.7
109 111 73 91.1 108 18.9
110 112 74 92.0 109 19.0
111 113 75 92.8 110 19.2
112 114 76 93.7 111 19.3
113 115 76 94.5 112 19.5
114 116 77 95.4 113 19.6
115 117 78 96.3 114 19.7
116 118 79 97.1 115 19.9
117 118 80 97.8 116 19.2
118 119 80 98.7 117 19.3
119 120 81 99.6 118 19.4
120 121 82 100.4 119 19.6
121 122 83 101.3 120 19.7
122 123 83 102.2 120 19.8
123 124 84 103.0 121 20.0
124 125 85 103.9 122 20.1
125 126 86 104.7 123 20.3
126 127 86 105.6 124 20.4
127 128 87 106.4 125 20.6
128 129 88 107.3 126 20.7
129 129 89 108.1 127 19.9
130 130 90 108.9 128 20.1
131 131 90 109.8 129 20.2
132 132 91 110.6 130 20.4
133 133 92 111.5 131 20.5
134 134 93 112.3 131 20.7
135 135 93 113.2 132 20.8
136 136 94 114.1 133 20.9
137 137 95 114.9 134 21.1
138 138 96 115.8 135 21.2
139 139 96 116.6 136 21.4
140 140 97 117.5 137 21.5
141 140 98 118.2 138 20.8
142 141 99 119.1 139 20.9
143 142 100 119.9 140 21.1
144 143 100 120.8 141 21.2
145 144 101 121.7 142 21.3
146 145 102 122.6 142 21.4
147 146 103 123.4 143 21.6
148 147 103 124.2 144 21.8
149 148 104 125.1 145 21.9
150 149 105 126.0 146 22.0
151 150 106 126.8 147 22.2
152 151 107 127.7 148 22.3
153 151 107 128.4 149 21.6
154 152 108 129.3 150 21.7
155 153 109 130.2 151 21.8
156 154 110 131.0 152 22.0
157 155 110 131.9 152 22.1
158 156 111 132.8 153 22.2
159 157 112 133.6 154 22.4
160 158 113 134.5 155 22.5
161 159 114 135.3 156 22.7
162 160 114 136.2 157 22.8
163 161 115 137.0 158 23.0
164 161 116 137.8 159 22.2
165 162 117 138.6 160 22.4
166 163 117 139.5 161 22.5
167 164 118 140.4 162 22.6
168 165 119 141.2 163 22.8
169 166 120 142.1 163 22.9
170 167 121 142.9 164 23.1
171 168 121 143.8 165 23.2
172 169 122 144.7 166 23.3
173 170 123 145.5 167 23.5
174 171 124 146.4 168 23.6
175 171 124 147.1 169 22.9
176 172 125 148.0 170 23.0
177 173 126 148.9 171 23.1
178 174 127 149.7 172 23.3
179 175 128 150.6 172 23.4
180 176 128 151.4 173 23.6
181 177 129 152.3 174 23.7
182 178 130 153.2 175 23.8
183 179 131 154.0 176 24.0
184 180 131 154.8 177 24.2
185 181 132 155.7 178 24.3
186 181 133 156.5 179 23.5
187 182 134 157.3 180 23.7
188 183 135 158.2 181 23.8
189 184 135 159.1 182 23.9
190 185 136 159.9 183 24.1
191 186 137 160.8 183 24.2
192 187 138 161.6 184 24.4
193 188 139 162.5 185 24.5
194 189 139 163.3 186 24.7
195 190 140 164.2 187 24.8
196 191 141 165.1 188 24.9
197 191 142 165.8 189 24.2
198 192 142 166.7 190 24.3
199 193 143 167.6 191 24.4
200 194 144 168.4 192 24.6
201 195 145 169.3 192 24.7
202 196 146 170.1 193 24.9
203 197 146 171.0 194 25.0
204 198 147 171.9 195 25.1
205 199 148 172.7 196 25.3
206 200 149 173.6 197 25.4
207 201 150 174.4 198 25.6
208 201 150 175.2 199 24.8
209 202 151 176.1 200 24.9
210 203 152 176.9 201 25.1
211 204 153 177.8 202 25.2
212 205 153 178.6 202 25.4
213 206 154 179.5 203 25.5
214 207 155 180.4 204 25.6
215 208 156 181.2 205 25.8
216 209 157 182.1 206 25.9
217 210 157 182.9 207 26.1
218 210 158 183.7 208 25.3
219 211 159 184.6 209 25.4
220 212 160 185.4 210 25.6
221 213 161 186.3 211 25.7
222 214 161 187.1 211 25.9
223 215 162 188.0 212 26.0
224 216 163 188.9 213 26.1
225 217 164 189.7 214 26.3
226 218 164 190.5 215 26.5
227 219 165 191.4 216 26.6
228 219 166 192.2 217 25.8
229 220 167 193.0 218 26.0
230 221 168 193.9 219 26.1
231 222 168 194.8 220 26.2
232 223 169 195.6 220 26.4
233 224 170 196.5 221 26.5
234 225 171 197.4 222 26.6
235 226 172 198.2 223 26.8
236 227 172 199.1 224 26.9
237 228 173 199.9 225 27.1
238 228 174 200.7 226 26.3
239 229 175 201.6 227 26.4
240 230 176 202.4 228 26.6
241 231 176 203.3 229 26.7
242 232 177 204.2 229 26.8
243 233 178 205.0 230 27.0
244 234 179 205.9 231 27.1
245 235 180 206.7 232 27.3
246 236 180 207.6 233 27.4
247 237 181 208.5 234 27.5
248 238 182 209.3 235 27.7
249 238 183 210.0 236 27.0
250 239 183 210.9 237 27.1
251 240 184 211.8 238 27.2
252 241 185 212.7 238 27.3
253 242 186 213.5 239 27.5
254 243 187 214.4 240 27.6
255 244 187 215.2 241 27.8
256 245 188 216.1 242 27.9
257 246 189 216.9 243 28.1
258 246 190 217.7 244 27.3
259 247 191 218.6 245 27.4
260 248 191 219.4 246 27.6
261 249 192 220.3 247 27.7
262 250 193 221.2 247 27.8
263 251 194 222.0 248 28.0
264 252 195 222.9 249 28.1
265 253 195 223.7 250 28.3
266 254 196 224.6 251 28.4
267 255 197 225.5 252 28.5
268 255 198 226.2 253 27.8
269 256 199 227.0 254 28.0
270 257 199 227.9 255 28.1
271 258 200 228.8 256 28.2
272 259 201 229.7 256 28.3
273 260 202 230.5 257 28.5
274 261 203 231.4 258 28.6
275 262 203 232.2 259 28.8
276 263 204 233.1 260 28.9
277 264 205 234.0 261 29.0
278 264 206 234.7 262 28.3
279 265 207 235.6 263 28.4
280 266 207 236.4 264 28.6
281 267 208 237.3 265 28.7
282 268 209 238.2 265 28.8
283 269 210 239.0 266 29.0
284 270 211 239.9 267 29.1
285 271 211 240.7 268 29.3
286 272 212 241.6 269 29.4
287 273 213 242.5 270 29.5
288 273 214 243.2 271 28.8
289 274 215 244.1 272 28.9
290 275 215 244.9 273 29.1
291 276 216 245.8 274 29.2
292 277 217 246.7 274 29.3
293 278 218 247.5 275 29.5
294 279 218 248.4 276 29.6
295 280 219 249.2 277 29.8
296 281 220 250.1 278 29.9
297 281 221 250.9 279 29.1
298 282 222 251.7 280 29.3
299 283 222 252.6 281 29.4
300 284 223 253.5 282 29.5

Why 100% attacks exist

Balanced Blitz rounds any win-or-lose chance of 5% or less to certainty, and trims the luckiest and unluckiest 10% of outcomes from the result. That means a big enough attack does not just probably win — it always wins. This chart is computed from the exact Balanced Blitz probabilities (no simulations): for each defender stack it finds the first attacking stack whose chance of defeat rounds to zero.

Notice that the attacker's edge grows with size: taking a 200-stack only needs a 194-stack (193 troops rolling), because the attacker's three dice against two compound over hundreds of rolls. On a capital the defender rolls three dice as well, and the guarantee roughly doubles in price.

Want the odds for an attack that is not in this chart? Use the Blitz Calculator for any battle up to 500v500, including the full outcome distribution. And if you are wondering what skipping the blitz slider costs you, see Full Send vs the Blitz Slider.